Pollution & GHGs
Pakistan faces accelerating environmental degradation from rapid urbanization, industrial expansion, deforestation, and unsustainable land use. Rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—mainly from energy, transport, industry, agriculture, and waste exacerbate climate change and local environmental stresses. Major cities frequently exceed safe air quality limits, with recurrent winter smog posing chronic public health and economic challenges. Robust monitoring of GHGs and air pollutants is essential to identify emission sources, assess vulnerabilities, and guide mitigation strategies.
Satellite based monitoring helps to track emissions, detect pollution hotspots, and safeguard natural resources. SUPARCO is strengthening Pakistan’s atmospheric surveillance by integrating high-resolution satellite data with ground measurements, generating accurate long-term datasets on GHGs, aerosols, and climate variables. These datasets support national climate reporting, improve air-quality forecasting, and inform strategic environmental planning.
Key Capabilities & Monitoring Parameters
— Satellite Monitoring of GHGs, Gaseous Pollutants & Aerosols
Provides spatio-temporal measurements of CO₂, CH₄, CO, NO₂, SO₂, O₃ and AOD, enabling continuous tracking of pollutant distribution and atmospheric composition.
— Satellite-Based Monitoring of Meteorological Parameters
Delivers near-real-time observations of essential climate variables including temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, and extreme-weather conditions.
— Ground-Based Validation of Satellite Atmospheric Data
Ensures accuracy of satellite-derived products using EPA’s fixed air quality stations and SUPARCO’s mobile monitoring labs, providing reliable ground truth for calibration and validation.
— Atmospheric Modeling for Pollutant Tracking & Forecasting
Uses advanced numerical models to simulate pollutant dispersion, trans-boundary transport, and climate-related impacts, supporting timely forecasting and policy-relevant assessments.
Recent Studies
Smog / Fog over Pakistan and Surrounding Region
SUPARCO monitors smog / fog and aerosol loading over Pakistan through daily satellite observations, supporting air quality assessment and informed decision-making. These datasets are made publicly available via the Space4Climate web portal, providing timely access to atmospheric information for researchers, policymakers, and the general public.
A comparison of satellite imagery from late December 2025 and mid of January 2026 indicates a noticeable change in smog conditions over Pakistan and the adjoining Indo-Gangetic Plain. In December, the spatial extent and intensity of smog show partial variation, with some areas experiencing relatively reduced coverage, while pockets of dense haze persist, particularly over central and eastern Punjab and across the border. By late January, dense and widespread smog covered large parts of Punjab and extended deep into KPK and Sindh provinces as well, reflecting peak winter pollution under stagnant meteorological conditions.
State of Atmospheric Pollutants & Greenhouse Gases over Pakistan
The composition of Pakistan’s atmosphere reflects the combined influence of natural processes, human activities, and climate variability. Satellite-based observations provide a comprehensive view of key greenhouse gases and air pollutants, enabling consistent monitoring of their spatial distribution, seasonal behavior, and long-term trends across the country.
This section presents satellite-derived insights into carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and aerosols (AOD) over Pakistan, supporting evidence-based environmental assessment and policy action.
Carbon Dioxide (CO₂): Indicator of Long-Term Climate Forcing
CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) is the most significant long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) responsible for human-caused climate change, trapping heat in Earth's atmosphere, primarily from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes, significantly contributing to global warming by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels far beyond pre-industrial levels. While naturally occurring, human activities since the Industrial Revolution have dramatically increased its concentration, making it the largest single driver of climate change.
Satellite-derived CO₂ data enables:
- Monitoring of national-scale CO₂ variability
- Assessment of interannual trends
- Support for national greenhouse gas inventories
CO₂ Concentration over Pakistan
Satellite-based analysis of column-averaged carbon dioxide (CO₂) over Pakistan and the surrounding region indicates a persistent and rising trend over the past decade, consistent with global observations. This represents an overall increase of ~17.8 ppm between 2018 and 2025, equivalent to an average growth rate of ~2.5–2.6 ppm per year, which is consistent with the globally observed rate of atmospheric CO₂ increase.
Globally, atmospheric CO₂ has risen from ~407 ppm (2018) to ~423–424 ppm (2024–2025).
- Pakistan (2018): 406 ppm → slightly below global mean
- Pakistan (2025): 424 ppm → comparable to global average
Overall, the analysis indicates that Pakistan is contributing to and being affected by the global increase in CO₂, reinforcing the need for sustained monitoring, emission mitigation strategies, and integration of satellite-derived CO₂ datasets into national climate reporting, policy formulation, and long-term low-carbon planning.
Note: For more detailed monthly data of CO2 for major cities of Pakistan, please visit Space 4 Climate Data Portal
Methane (CH₄): A Potent Short-Lived Climate Pollutant
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a strong near-term warming effect. In Pakistan, major CH₄ sources include agriculture (rice cultivation, livestock), waste management, and energy-related activities. Unlike CO₂, methane shows stronger regional and seasonal variability, making satellite monitoring particularly valuable.
Satellite-based methane observations help:
- Identify regional enhancement zones
- Track seasonal and interannual variability
- Support mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants
Satellite imagery retrieved from Sentinel-5P for 2025 reveals methane hotspots across Pakistan primarily over:
- Agricultural regions (Punjab, Sindh): Linked to rice paddies, livestock (enteric fermentation), and biomass burning.
- Populated areas: Urban emissions from landfills, wastewater, and domestic biomass use.
- Potential fossil fuel zones: Areas with oil/gas extraction, distribution, or processing may also contribute.
This spatial pattern confirms CH₄ as largely driven by diffuse, area-wide sources rather than point sources like heavy industry.
Satellite-derived annual mean methane (CH₄) concentrations over Pakistan show a persistent upward trend during the period 2018–2025, indicating a strengthening contribution of methane to Pakistan’s atmospheric greenhouse gas burden. Between 2018 and 2025, methane concentrations increased from 1890 ppbv to 1941 ppbv, representing:
- Absolute increase: +51 ppbv
- Percentage increase: ~2.7% over 8 years
- Average growth rate: ~6–7 ppbv per year
This steady rise mirrors global methane growth trends, while also reflecting regional emission dynamics specific to Pakistan.
Note: For more detailed monthly data of CH4 for major cities of Pakistan, please visit Space 4 Climate Data Portal
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO₂): Marker of Urban and Industrial Air Pollution
Nitrogen dioxide is a key air pollutant associated with vehicular emissions, power plants, and industrial activity. Unlike greenhouse gases, NO₂ has a short atmospheric lifetime, making it an effective indicator of local and regional emission sources.
Satellite NO₂ observations provide:
- Identification of urban and industrial hotspots
- Insight into temporal changes in emissions
- Support for air-quality management under Pakistan Clean Air Program (PCAP)
The Sentinel-5P satellite image for 2025 highlights distinct NO₂ hotspots over major urban and industrial zones, particularly in Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi/Islamabad, and Peshawar. These hotspots align with regions of concentrated industrial activity, energy use, and urban transport, confirming NO₂ as a tracer for anthropogenic combustion sources.
The annual average NO₂ concentration over Pakistan has shown variability between 2019 and 2025, ranging from a low of 20.2 µmol/m² in 2020 to a peak of 22.7 µmol/m² in 2022. Lowest in 2020, likely reflecting reduced emissions due to pandemic-related slowdowns. Post-pandemic rebound peaked in 2022, followed by relative stabilization in 2023 - 2025 around 20.6 - 21.6 µmol/m².
Note: For more detailed monthly data of NO2 for major cities of Pakistan, please visit Space 4 Climate Data Portal
Sulfur dioxide (SO2): Primary marker of fossil fuels combustion
Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) is a short-lived atmospheric pollutant primarily emitted from the combustion of sulfur-containing fossil fuels, oil refining, coal-fired power plants, metal smelting, brick kilns, and heavy industry. While SO₂ is not a greenhouse gas, it has important climate interactions; for instance, sulfate aerosols derived from SO₂ can exert a short-term cooling effect by reflecting solar radiation. At the same time, they contribute to cloud modification and regional climate variability. This dual role highlights the complexity of the environment–climate change nexus, where air quality management and climate objectives must be addressed in tandem.
In Pakistan, SO₂ emissions are closely linked with energy production, industrial expansion, and urban growth, particularly in major industrial and power-generation corridors. Satellite-based SO₂ measurements reveal hotspots over industrialized and energy-intensive regions, including central Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well as Karachi city indicating the emissions from:
- Major urban and industrial centers
- Coal-based and oil-fired power plants
- Oil refineries and large manufacturing clusters
These hotspots indicate localized but intense SO₂ emissions that contribute significantly to urban air pollution and regional atmospheric chemistry.
Satellite observations from Sentinel-5P indicate pronounced inter-annual variability in sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations over Pakistan during 2018–2025. The nationally averaged SO₂ values show a clear rising trend from 2018 to 2020, followed by fluctuations and a notable decline in 2025
Note: For more detailed monthly data of SO2 for major cities of Pakistan, please visit Space 4 Climate Data Portal
Aerosols (AOD): Smog, Dust, and Atmospheric Particles
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is a dimensionless measure of how much sunlight is blocked or scattered by aerosols in the atmospheric column. It is a valuable and relatable proxy for particulate pollution and is closely linked to smog episodes. Winter smog in Pakistan (particularly in Punjab) is characterized by high PM₂.₅, which elevates AOD significantly. Higher AOD values indicate greater aerosol loading, which can come from dust, pollution, smoke, or sea salt. AOD plays a critical role in air quality, visibility, and climate processes. In Pakistan, aerosol loading reportedly arises from vehicular and industrial emissions, biomass burning, dust storms, and natural sources.
Satellite-based AOD retrievals provide:
- Consistent nationwide coverage
- Detection of seasonal aerosol peaks
- Identification of dust corridors and pollution hotspots
- Critical inputs for smog early warning systems
The MODIS-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) imagery for 2025 highlights pronounced spatial variability in aerosol loading across Pakistan. Elevated AOD values are observed over southeastern Pakistan, particularly the Thar Desert region, reflecting persistent natural dust sources. The Punjab plains, including major urban and industrial centers such as Lahore and Faisalabad, exhibit high aerosol concentrations primarily driven by anthropogenic emissions from vehicular traffic, industrial activities, and agricultural practices. The Indus Basin shows mixed aerosol plumes resulting from the combined influence of dust transport and pollution sources. In contrast, comparatively low AOD levels are evident over northern Pakistan, where higher elevation, lower population density, and limited industrial activity contribute to cleaner atmospheric conditions. Coastal regions display moderate AOD values, influenced by maritime aerosols and sea-salt particles, which dilute and disperse pollutant concentrations.
The following general monthly pattern is inferred based on typical aerosol behavior in Pakistan:
- January – February: Moderate AOD, influenced by winter-time urban haze, industrial emissions, and occasional dust transport.
- March – April: Increase in AOD due to rising temperatures, pre-monsoon dust activity, and agricultural burning.
- May – June: Peak AOD values, driven by intense dust storms from the Thar, Cholistan, and southwestern deserts, combined with urban/industrial pollution.
- July – August: Decline in AOD due to monsoon rains which wash out aerosols, especially dust and particulates.
- September – October: Moderate to low AOD; post-monsoon clarity, though harvest-related biomass burning may cause localized spikes.
- November – December: Gradual increase in AOD due to reduced dispersion, winter smog (especially in Punjab), and increased use of biomass for heating.
Note: For more detailed monthly data of AOD for major cities of Pakistan, please visit Space 4 Climate Data Portal
Image Gallery
Baseline GHG & Air Pollution Datasets (2018–2025)
SUPARCO has developed and compiled baseline datasets of major GHGs and air pollutants for Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Quetta, and Peshawar using satellite observations from 2018–2025. Monthly averages and detailed spatial–temporal datasets supported by satellite imagery will be made available through a dedicated web portal shortly.